Spring 2026 began with serious pressure on insurance conditions and freight rates, affecting the economics of voyages and subsequent operational decisions. In addition, leading container lines such as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO, Evergreen, and ONE are publicly updating their service advisories and revising routes on select routes around the world. Some services are switching to longer alternative routes, rotations are being adjusted, port arrival windows are being shifted, and additional surcharges are being introduced or revised.
These market conditions mean a change in the entire dynamics of fleet movement on the relevant trade lanes, as ships arrive at new hubs unevenly, bunching occurs, waiting times at anchorages increase, and ETAs become unstable.
Let's take a look at how, in such conditions, logistics teams can track not only the location of ships but also systemic changes in routes and service behavior in real time.
How to detect congestion early (before it is recognized by the port)?
Anchorage queue = the fastest indicator
If pressure is put on the port's throughput capacity, vessels begin to accumulate at anchor. This is the first sign of congestion and an early warning signal. Anchorage delays reflect delays 2-4 days before information about berth delays becomes public.
What to monitor daily:
- Vessels at anchor (count) — total number of vessels waiting offshore.
- Median waiting time — typical anchorage delay.
- P90 waiting time — captures tail risk; shows whether a portion of vessels is experiencing significant delays.
- Queue growth rate — daily increase in anchored vessels (+X vessels/day or +Y% day-over-day).
How to track it in practice?
Trends in traffic growth can be estimated by tracking changes in the status of individual vessels (“Underway,” “At anchor,” “In port”) and comparing the planned ETA with the actual arrival time.
So, shippers or cargo owners, as well as logistics providers, can check the real-time vessel location, its port calls, and ETA changes via the Vessel Tracking tool. This way, you gain visibility at the level of a specific vessel.
Schedule reliability
Here, our focus should be on monitoring the trend of instability, rather than just every delay. After all, it's easier to manage each delay individually than an unstable sailing schedule with deadlines.
Monitor schedule consistency as well as single ETA exceptions:
- Frequent ETA revisions (rolling updates): multiple changes within a few days indicate systemic disruption.
- Omitted calls or blank sailings: ports removed from rotation signal network-level adjustment.
- Service rotation breakdowns: when the same service repeatedly misses its planned sequence of ports.
Often, ETA volatility is a stronger risk indicator than the delay itself.
The point is, if ETA shifts once and stabilizes, the impact is limited. However, if it changes repeatedly, planning becomes unreliable.
Vessel diversions
When the route is changed, the increase in delivery time is immediately noticeable. Connections with feeder voyages are shifted, rail or road planning may not coincide, and ultimately, unloading at the warehouse has to be postponed.
Thus, if several ships of the same service change their route at once, the delay accumulates across the entire line. Uneven arrivals create new congestion. After changing their route, ships often arrive at alternative ports in “batches” rather than evenly.
What is the result?
- The queue at the anchorage grows rapidly
- Waiting time at the berth increases
- The container yard becomes overloaded
Of course, the main risk is the unpredictable and unstable schedules. This problem affects not just one voyage but the entire trade line.
What does vessel diversions mean for your cargo?
Let’s discover what's the deal with your shipping containers:
| Factor of rotation changes | Loss of planning accuracy | Risk of delay at the new hub | Change in the economics of delivery |
| Result in details | - your container will arrive later - the transshipment port may change - the feeder or rail connection may be disrupted | - the queue at the roadstead grows - unloading time increases - containers stay in port longer | Diversion affects: - Incoterms validity period - storage costs, demurrage/detention fees - insurance coverage (depending on the route) |
How to use Ship Schedules to analyze vessel diversions?
When a ship changes its route, it is important to understand whether this is a one-time deviation or a restructuring of the entire service. To do this, you need to look not only at the position of the ship but also at the structure of the line's rotation.
On the ‘Route' tab in Ship Schedules, you can:
- check the full sequence of ports on the selected route,
- see the planned arrival dates for each port,
- track the intervals between voyages on a specific route,
- compare the services of different carriers between two points to book the best tariff option.
This allows you to quickly find indicators of disruption:
- a port omitted from the rotation (omitted call),
- a change in the order of calls,
- a significant shift in ETA across the entire line,
- an increase in the interval between vessels on the same service.
This way, you can see not just a delay of a specific vessel, but a change in the logic of the entire trade line.
How does this affect planning in March 2026?
Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO, and ONE have publicly confirmed that they are reviewing routes and redirecting some services to longer alternative passages. As a result of these measures, some voyages have been diverted to routes around Africa, which has automatically lengthened transit times between Asia and Europe.
What happens when the duration of the transportation service is extended? Change in the entire rotation:
- shift in port arrival windows
- disruption of connections with feeder flights
- disruptions in the schedule of rail and road slots
- uneven vessel flow to ports
Furthermore, AIS data analytics show that commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed down by approximately 70%, with many vessels turning back or changing their declared port of destination. In fact, the planned ETA is adjusted several times during a single voyage, and downstream planning cannot keep up.
At the same time, marine insurers have announced the revision or cancellation of geopolitical risk coverage for certain transit areas. For shipowners, this means a change in the economics of the voyage, and for the market, it means higher freight rates and surcharges. In fact, this triggers a chain reaction:
the route becomes more expensive → the service is revised → transit times are extended → alternative ports receive additional volume
What are the consequences so far?
- Decreased service regularity on certain routes
- Increased intervals between ships
- Reduced number of departures to some regions
- Increased transportation costs due to fuel prices
In addition, Brent crude oil prices have risen by about 9%, indicating that global supply chains for commodities have been affected by delivery disruptions and transit risks.
Supply planning specifics
Average transit time data is not the main risk indicator.
Production schedules and just-in-time delivery increasingly depend on a vessel arriving significantly late due to alternative routes.
The risk of costs increases at connection points.
When ship flows arrive unevenly at the hub, containers remain idle longer in congested ports. Even with normal free time, there is a risk of demurrage. The delay is then transferred to land logistics and warehouses.
Increased insurance and contract requirements.
From now on, you cannot treat this as “background noise" because if the route has changed after booking and the insurance coverage or Incoterms have not been rechecked, the risk is transferred to the cargo owner.
Your next operational step for March 2026
The current situation requires moving away from expectations because the market has already changed: routes have been extended, rotations are being adjusted, and insurance conditions are being revised.
Proactive planning should look like this:
Step 1: Switch from static to dynamic control. Track not only the current location of the vessel, but also monitor service stability, namely changes in port order, ETA updates, etc.
Step 2: Update internal delivery time calculations based on recent voyages. Previously, you could only rely on average historical data. Now you need to monitor whether the ranking has lengthened or become uneven in recent weeks to adjust production and warehouse plans accordingly. Otherwise, delays at sea will turn into shortages or downtime on land.
Step 3: Synchronize the downstream chain. Ensure that customs clearance, warehouse operations, and fleet are ready for changes in vessel schedules. Failure to do so increases the risk of demurrage and detention, even with a slight extension of transit time.
Step 4: Pay special attention to transportation terms and insurance. If your route has already changed (or may change), coverage and contract terms should be checked before departure, not after an incident occurs.
The height of the 2026 spring season requires quick response and the ability to anticipate changes in service structure before they become a problem in the supply chain.
You are always welcome to contact sales@searates to maintain control even in an unstable environment. The SeaRates team is here for in-depth work with actual data such as rotations, ETA volatility, or port activity dynamics, or to meet any of your business needs in logistics and trade around the world.
